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澳门网络赌博第一公司

澳门网络赌博第一公司:Credit risk is subject to market concerns.

时间:2018/5/30 18:29:54  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: (1) Market volume adjustment . Last week was affected by the spread of credit risk, and there was a clear correction in the market. The sin...

(1) Market volume adjustment . Last week was affected by the spread of credit risk, and there was a clear correction in the market. The single week SSE 50, GEM refers to the number of declines were 2.89% and 1.75%, respectively.

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(2) The credit risk has gradually gained market attention . Two weeks ago, in the weekly report, the credit risk event was prompted. After the Dun An Group incident received media attention, the recent risk events such as the unsatisfactory scale of bond issuance caused the credit risk to receive market attention again. From the current credit spreads (5 years AA credit bonds - financial bonds), about 120 + BP, and the historical high compared to the level of the center is low, the future widening credit spreads is a high probability event.

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Judging from the choice of policies for a period of time in the future, the exposure of credit risks will continue to appear one after another. Liu He’s position on credit issues is relatively firm at the “system of sound systemic financial risk prevention” meeting. The exposure of credit risk this year may be More adequate than in the past. If we say that the breach of the 2014 ultra-dubai bond is the beginning of the just-breaking, then in the credit risk incidents of recent years, the occurrence of default events in 2016 has been frequent, but the credit spread has not been fully responded. This is mainly because In addition to the exposure of credit risk in China's credit spreads, the response may be liquidity risk in more cases, which is related to the pricing bias in China's past long-term rigid payment environment. However, this year's situation may change. If it really breaks, the future credit spreads can truly reflect the credit risk, and it will also return the long-term underestimated deviation back to normal levels.

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Compared to policy choices after widening credit spreads, it is more important to see how policy options are implemented. Choosing tight credits and wide currencies according to current policy ideas may be a high probability event, that is, still tightening the credit environment on the one hand. Increased exposure to more credit risks has also accelerated the clearing of so-called “zombie enterprises” (although the actual effects of the policy may be biased against the original intention of the policy). On the one hand, it is relatively loose in the financial market, which is reflected in the flow between the banks . Sex is more abundant, and the period spread may be leveled off to maintain relatively stable asset prices.

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In addition, for overseas uncertainty, a possible interpretation was mentioned last week in the weekly newspaper: China's trade surplus shrinks → foreign exchange losses fall → reserve hedges → RMB depreciation → the domestic economy expands the balance between domestic demand and stabilizing leverage. No matter what kind of path, you may return performance in the financial markets, the monetary environment is relatively liberal bias.

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(3) + consumption growth is still the main direction of short-term focus on tail risk. Although the policy options on financial asset prices liberal bias high probability, but short term by internal and external pressure, does not rule out the possibility of market tail risk, and recommended more careful in the choice of positions.

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choice in the industry, consumption and growth is relatively consistent with the current economic cycle and the logic of the policy mix, bottom-up growth is recommended reporting the results to find certainty strong direction, the field may be the last funding will focus on pushing into the market.


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